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Our Methodology

How we source official prices, and how our forecast engine projects the next notified rate using OGRA's own published pricing formula.

1. How We Source Current Prices

Whenever OGRA and the Ministry of Energy issue a new price notification, they publish a PDF on ogra.org.pk/price-publications (and a separate notification for LPG). An automated pipeline checks for new publications, downloads the PDF, and extracts the notified per-litre (or per-kg, for LPG) rate for Petrol, Diesel, Kerosene, and LPG. Every price on this site is stamped with its official OGRA effective date and traceable back to that source document.

2. How Our Price Forecast Works

OGRA sets petrol and diesel prices with a documented, public formula — it is not a black box. Each price notification includes a full line-item breakdown of exactly how the price was calculated. OGRA also separately publishes the daily Platts benchmark and SBP exchange-rate data feeding that formula, at ogra.org.pk/platts-data. Our forecast engine reads that same official data and reruns OGRA's own formula, rather than approximating it from unrelated market proxies. The steps are:

01
Platts Arab Gulf Benchmark
7-working-day rolling average of the daily Platts Arab Gulf Mean price for Petrol (Gasoline 92 RON) or Diesel (Gas Oil), in USD/barrel, as published on OGRA's own Daily Platts Data page.
02
Freight Premium
Weighted average freight and premium of recent import cargoes, added in USD/barrel.
03
SBP Exchange Rate
7-working-day rolling average USD/PKR rate published by the State Bank of Pakistan, used to convert the landed cost to Pakistani Rupees per litre.
04
Port Costs & Customs
Incidentals, ocean loss/gain, exchange-rate adjustment, and customs duty — all published per-notification by OGRA.
05
IFEM & OMC/Dealer Margins
Inland Freight Equalization Margin (keeps the price identical nationwide) plus fixed Oil Marketing Company and dealer margins.
06
Statutory Levies
Petroleum Levy, Climate Support Levy, and (currently zero-rated) Sales Tax, as notified by the Federal Government.

3. Why the Forecast Isn't Exact

OGRA's rolling average shifts forward by one trading session each time it updates — the oldest day drops off and the newest published Platts print is added. That newest print doesn't exist yet at the moment we compute a forecast, so our "Next Session Signal" assumes it continues the trend of the most recent known trading sessions. When we apply the formula to data OGRA has already published, our recomputed price lands within about a paisa of their actual notified rate — the gap you may see between our projection and the eventual real notification comes from that one unknown future data point, not from an approximated formula.

4. Update Frequency

We check for new OGRA notifications automatically throughout the day. When a new price is published, it is typically live on this site within hours, along with an updated forecast for the next likely revision.

5. Corrections

If you believe a price is incorrect, please see our Contact page — include the product, date, and (if possible) a link to the OGRA notification you are comparing against.